Flat Growth in the Dutch Eat and Drink Universe: Which Segments Are the Most Impacted?

The Dutch eat and drink sector has grown at around 3% a year since 2017. Over the past year that rate has fallen to zero — and a flat headline hides a market moving in two directions at once.

This article looks at three segments in detail: fast casual restaurants, social dining restaurants, and bars and pubs. One is still growing, two are shrinking.

Change in active outlets, Dutch eat and drink sector. Source: Roamler Foodservice Database.

Fast Casual Restaurants

Our definition: a fast casual restaurant sits between fast food and casual dining — limited or self-service, high table turnover, lower price point, and a limited or themed menu such as pancakes or pizza.

Fast casual is the one segment still adding outlets. Since 2017 it has grown far faster than the wider industry, averaging over 10% a year, and it added another 5% over the past year.

Positive as that is, the trajectory is worth watching: 5% against a 10% long-run average means the segment is decelerating too, just from a much higher base.

Social Dining Restaurants

Our definition: full service, extensive menu, higher price point.

Social dining has moved the other way, with active outlets down 1% over the past year. The segment previously tracked the industry average; it now sits below it.

The likeliest explanation is price. When households turn cautious, the higher cost of a full-service meal is among the first things they cut, and outlet numbers follow demand with a lag.

Bars and Pubs

Our definition: venues serving a wide range of drinks, sometimes with appetisers and small meals, where ordering a drink alone is entirely normal.

Bars and pubs have had the hardest run of the three. The segment has declined consistently since 2017, at an average of −2% a year, and the period from 2019 to 2023 shows no sign of that reversing.

This is the segment where the decline is structural rather than cyclical: it started well before the recent economic pressure and has continued through it.

Conclusion

A flat sector figure is the least informative number in this article. Underneath it, fast casual continues to add outlets while social dining and, more severely, bars and pubs lose them. The market is not stalling so much as redistributing.

For brands selling into the channel, that distinction is the operative one. A zero-growth market where a third of the segments are shrinking and one is expanding at 5% requires a different field plan from a market that is genuinely flat.