Key Insights Into the Evolving Dutch Soda Market

The Dutch soda market is having an awkward year. Poor weather has kept people off the terraces where sodas sell best, and the sugar tax has pushed prices up. For brands and outlet owners already working with margins squeezed by inflation and raw material costs, that is two pressures arriving at once.

Here is what our data shows on prices, category movement, and the differences between regions.

A note on the measure: figures below are numeric distribution — the share of outlets stocking a given product — taken from our Market Monitor. Numeric distribution tracks availability on the ground, not volumes consumed.

Price Dynamics

The sugar tax has moved prices materially, adding between 9 and 26 cents per litre depending on the product. Those costs land on brands and outlet owners first, and there is limited room to absorb them without passing them through to the consumer.

Our Market Monitor tracks listed prices in outlets, and it confirms the effect. Across bitter lemon, regular cola, ginger ale, still iced tea and tonic, listed prices rose by an average of 5% between October 2023 and January 2024 — the window that spans the tax change. Still iced tea rose the most of the five, ginger ale the least.

Movement Between Categories

Sodas remain a fixture of the eat and drink channel, and that has not changed. What is changing is which sodas.

The sugar-free share has grown steadily for several years, with Coca-Cola Zero and Pepsi Max leading. The interesting part is how closely the two sides track each other: regular lines lose distribution and their zero-sugar equivalents pick most of it up. Regular Red Bull fell 1% while Red Bull Sugar Free and Zero together gained 0.7% — not a like-for-like swap, but close enough to read as substitution rather than category loss.

Ginger beer looks like more than a fad: 5.8% more outlets stock it than did a year ago, having carried nothing a year earlier. Vitamin water — Sourcy among others — and kombucha are also building presence, each up around a point. Energy drinks and regular cola are moving the other way.

Regional Differences in Availability

Distribution varies considerably between provinces. Taking the same five products — bitter lemon, regular cola, ginger ale, still iced tea and tonic — Drenthe has the broadest coverage, with an average numeric distribution of 81% across eat and drink locations. Within the category, still iced tea reaches 63% of Drenthe outlets and ginger ale 74%, the highest for both.

Groningen sits at the other end, with the lowest overall coverage of the five and a notable retreat in still iced tea, down around 7 points on last year.

Worth reading carefully: this measures where products are stocked, not where they are drunk. A province with high distribution is one where the category has won listings — which is what a brand's field team can actually act on.

Conclusion

The Dutch soda market is absorbing a genuine shock. The sugar tax has lifted prices for everyone, and brands and outlet owners are carrying most of it. Underneath that, the category is redistributing rather than shrinking: towards sugar-free, towards ginger beer, towards functional drinks. Knowing which shifts are happening where — and in which outlets — is what turns a market-wide pressure into a set of specific commercial decisions.